* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032019 07/22/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 28 30 36 46 52 53 50 45 39 31 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 28 30 36 46 52 53 50 45 39 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 31 35 39 40 37 34 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 2 19 35 37 38 43 53 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 0 -1 -1 3 0 7 2 0 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 298 292 309 348 51 239 195 219 228 244 248 251 251 SST (C) 30.6 30.2 29.7 29.6 30.2 29.7 28.4 28.7 27.3 21.2 16.2 17.0 19.2 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 163 162 172 167 146 152 133 89 75 76 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 165 154 143 142 156 153 134 138 119 82 72 72 75 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.7 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 9 10 7 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 57 55 57 62 56 52 53 54 50 41 39 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -49 -59 -58 -24 30 59 49 -12 -17 -37 -62 -78 -71 200 MB DIV 3 -2 6 0 41 46 66 30 42 4 -1 5 -17 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 2 -4 7 -6 -6 -20 -7 -25 1 -27 LAND (KM) 198 109 53 52 127 321 269 516 441 444 388 707 1212 LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.9 26.6 27.4 28.4 30.8 33.7 36.7 39.6 41.8 43.4 44.3 44.1 LONG(DEG W) 78.3 79.1 79.6 79.7 79.3 77.3 73.8 69.6 64.5 58.3 51.5 44.7 38.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 9 12 18 22 24 26 26 26 24 24 HEAT CONTENT 80 69 53 47 61 53 22 36 16 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 8. 16. 22. 26. 28. 29. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 7. 2. -4. -12. -22. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 5. 11. 21. 27. 28. 25. 20. 14. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.3 78.3 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032019 THREE 07/22/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 62.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.41 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.23 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.88 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 18.6% 12.9% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 25.5% 15.0% 8.1% 3.8% 24.8% 13.7% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 15.1% 9.4% 5.6% 1.3% 8.3% 9.3% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032019 THREE 07/22/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032019 THREE 07/22/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 27 28 30 36 46 52 53 50 45 39 31 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 29 35 45 51 52 49 44 38 30 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 24 30 40 46 47 44 39 33 25 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 33 39 40 37 32 26 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT