* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032018 07/12/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 73 72 67 61 50 35 25 25 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 73 72 67 61 50 35 25 25 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 75 71 66 59 52 41 34 33 35 36 38 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 26 30 30 35 36 37 27 18 11 13 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 3 6 6 2 4 9 3 -5 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 208 208 202 214 219 242 218 191 190 220 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 23.2 20.9 12.3 7.5 10.9 8.9 10.6 10.8 10.4 9.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 99 88 72 70 72 70 70 68 65 63 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 113 91 82 70 69 70 69 68 66 63 61 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.5 -54.8 -54.2 -54.0 -53.4 -50.7 -47.6 -46.4 -46.3 -46.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 -0.3 0.3 0.4 0.9 3.1 3.3 5.1 4.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 48 49 46 45 39 41 57 65 61 52 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 30 31 29 27 24 18 19 25 23 20 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 40 54 47 8 -11 86 169 115 145 122 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 47 18 5 17 -26 -27 2 28 -2 -42 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 12 -39 -9 -69 -54 -47 -22 -10 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 563 452 340 245 20 626 1345 1079 805 681 703 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.5 40.5 42.5 44.7 46.8 50.2 53.2 56.5 59.8 62.1 63.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.4 61.8 59.2 56.0 52.8 44.7 35.2 26.4 19.3 15.0 13.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 26 28 30 31 31 32 32 28 20 12 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 24 CX,CY: 18/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -10. -17. -23. -29. -36. -43. -47. -51. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -15. -15. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 10. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 2. 1. -2. -8. -9. -4. -7. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -8. -14. -25. -40. -49. -50. -55. -61. -63. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 38.5 64.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 CHRIS 07/12/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 467.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.44 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 CHRIS 07/12/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 CHRIS 07/12/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 73 72 67 61 50 35 25 25 20 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 73 68 62 51 36 26 26 21 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 66 60 49 34 24 24 19 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 59 48 33 23 23 18 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT