* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032018 07/11/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 79 78 73 60 46 32 25 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 79 79 78 73 60 46 32 25 20 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 80 78 77 73 64 47 38 34 34 35 36 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 25 23 31 31 35 35 35 28 19 7 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 3 7 4 4 9 10 0 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 231 214 205 207 203 221 229 235 208 181 186 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.0 24.3 21.2 11.7 5.5 9.4 9.9 11.1 10.4 10.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 119 105 90 72 69 71 71 69 66 65 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 110 107 96 83 70 69 70 69 67 64 63 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -53.8 -53.6 -52.8 -49.2 -46.9 -46.4 -45.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.6 -0.2 0.6 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.0 5.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 50 48 50 46 46 40 48 61 60 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 26 30 32 31 27 21 18 20 21 18 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 30 40 58 47 11 27 131 155 156 201 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 42 50 62 14 -3 7 -20 0 20 20 -39 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 7 3 7 -19 -47 -61 -56 -50 -38 -8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 607 540 439 323 240 265 974 1336 895 711 731 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.0 38.7 40.4 42.6 44.8 48.6 51.7 55.0 58.3 60.9 62.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.8 64.5 62.2 59.4 56.6 49.4 40.2 30.6 22.1 16.9 15.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 23 25 27 30 31 32 33 31 23 14 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 22 CX,CY: 17/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -8. -16. -23. -30. -38. -45. -50. -54. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -18. -17. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 5. 2. -3. -7. -6. -6. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -7. -20. -34. -48. -55. -60. -66. -68. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 37.0 66.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 CHRIS 07/11/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.45 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.19 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 515.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.39 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 54.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.45 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 CHRIS 07/11/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 CHRIS 07/11/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 79 79 78 73 60 46 32 25 20 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 79 78 73 60 46 32 25 20 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 75 70 57 43 29 22 17 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 65 52 38 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT