* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032018 07/11/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 85 85 85 82 69 54 39 30 25 18 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 85 85 85 85 82 69 54 39 30 25 18 16 DIS V (KT) LGEM 85 86 87 83 74 54 42 36 35 36 37 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 15 24 32 30 35 32 37 32 26 22 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 1 2 5 6 7 13 5 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 300 231 208 206 210 215 229 233 223 206 206 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 26.8 25.8 22.2 19.8 7.6 10.1 8.7 10.7 10.4 6.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 126 117 94 84 69 72 71 71 69 67 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 109 114 106 86 78 69 70 70 69 67 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.5 -54.4 -54.8 -54.8 -54.6 -53.9 -51.0 -47.6 -47.1 -46.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.3 0.3 -0.3 -0.6 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.3 3.3 4.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 51 52 50 50 46 44 44 57 60 59 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 23 26 31 32 29 24 19 20 23 20 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 30 35 47 56 24 -9 92 168 141 161 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 60 59 43 -5 18 -2 -19 13 20 -50 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 0 6 -5 -19 -22 -61 -70 -55 -39 -37 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 616 583 528 415 297 0 572 1345 1003 725 797 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.7 37.3 38.8 40.9 42.9 46.7 50.0 53.5 57.3 61.0 64.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 69.0 66.8 64.6 62.0 59.3 53.7 45.4 35.3 24.8 17.1 12.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 23 26 29 28 30 34 35 31 24 21 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 17 CX,CY: 13/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -4. -7. -16. -24. -32. -40. -48. -54. -57. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -12. -15. -18. -19. -19. -21. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 6. 8. 7. 2. -4. -3. -1. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -3. -16. -31. -46. -55. -60. -67. -69. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 35.7 69.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 CHRIS 07/11/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.27 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 545.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.33 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 75.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.24 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 CHRIS 07/11/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 CHRIS 07/11/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 85 85 85 82 69 54 39 30 25 18 16 DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 84 84 81 68 53 38 29 24 17 15 DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 81 78 65 50 35 26 21 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 72 59 44 29 20 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 53 38 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 85 76 70 67 60 45 30 21 16 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 85 85 76 70 66 51 36 27 22 15 DIS DIS