* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032018 07/11/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 90 89 87 79 62 46 31 25 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 90 90 89 87 79 62 46 31 25 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 90 92 92 93 89 68 48 38 35 35 33 32 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 15 28 33 31 33 38 40 39 29 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 0 -1 4 8 6 8 11 12 1 1 SHEAR DIR 317 290 238 210 207 204 230 228 232 208 190 199 202 SST (C) 26.5 26.0 26.1 25.7 22.7 11.3 5.1 9.5 9.9 11.8 11.9 11.7 10.3 POT. INT. (KT) 120 117 119 116 96 71 69 71 70 70 68 67 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 103 107 106 88 69 68 70 69 67 66 65 65 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.6 -54.2 -53.9 -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -52.7 -49.6 -47.7 -47.8 -47.7 -47.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 2.9 3.1 3.7 4.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 40 47 50 52 50 47 48 42 47 53 57 57 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 23 26 30 34 27 21 19 23 17 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 16 17 30 34 45 49 14 38 119 153 145 126 110 200 MB DIV 31 51 63 54 41 3 14 -14 11 19 25 20 -109 700-850 TADV 6 17 8 9 -2 -29 -28 -67 -61 -31 -15 -17 -12 LAND (KM) 483 611 590 521 413 247 252 922 1383 842 544 393 529 LAT (DEG N) 34.7 35.9 37.0 38.9 40.7 44.7 48.2 51.5 54.2 56.2 57.6 59.9 62.9 LONG(DEG W) 70.7 69.0 67.2 64.7 62.2 56.4 49.5 40.9 31.2 22.6 15.9 11.4 8.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 18 23 27 28 29 31 32 29 23 18 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 10 CX,CY: 8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 679 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -4. -8. -16. -25. -34. -44. -52. -58. -63. -68. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -14. -16. -20. -22. -23. -23. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 4. -3. -6. -2. -10. -14. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -3. -11. -28. -44. -58. -65. -81. -87. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 34.7 70.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 CHRIS 07/11/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.73 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.30 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 630.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.27 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.31 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 CHRIS 07/11/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 CHRIS 07/11/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 90 90 89 87 79 62 46 31 25 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 89 88 86 78 61 45 30 24 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 85 83 75 58 42 27 21 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 78 70 53 37 22 16 DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 63 46 30 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 90 81 75 72 65 48 32 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 90 90 90 81 75 71 54 38 23 17 DIS DIS DIS