* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032018 07/11/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 89 89 91 89 76 61 44 37 29 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 85 88 89 89 91 89 76 60 43 36 28 19 DIS V (KT) LGEM 85 89 90 90 91 83 58 44 37 37 39 39 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 14 15 23 33 41 37 38 35 31 29 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 2 4 2 5 4 2 2 4 7 SHEAR DIR 334 317 289 225 211 209 215 229 229 203 188 173 170 SST (C) 27.5 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.8 22.7 7.6 8.9 9.4 12.3 12.6 12.5 11.9 POT. INT. (KT) 131 120 120 120 127 96 69 70 71 72 70 67 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 104 105 107 114 88 68 69 69 69 67 64 63 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.4 -54.9 -54.4 -54.1 -54.9 -54.5 -53.7 -51.9 -50.2 -49.0 -48.9 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.7 0.0 0.9 1.8 2.9 3.7 4.1 3.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 36 40 47 50 49 47 41 40 41 49 53 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 21 23 26 33 30 25 20 21 22 20 14 850 MB ENV VOR -11 14 17 34 30 54 37 7 71 110 132 126 62 200 MB DIV 28 31 52 63 51 15 -1 -11 -40 4 19 17 1 700-850 TADV 3 1 15 4 20 6 -34 -55 -54 -34 -31 -21 -18 LAND (KM) 406 489 590 583 567 328 27 514 1249 1087 571 430 397 LAT (DEG N) 33.9 34.8 35.7 37.1 38.4 42.4 46.5 49.6 51.9 53.9 56.1 57.9 59.7 LONG(DEG W) 71.9 70.6 69.3 67.2 65.2 59.9 53.9 46.1 36.2 26.6 18.1 13.3 11.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 18 21 25 29 30 32 32 28 21 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 9 0 2 1 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 9 CX,CY: 7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -17. -26. -34. -42. -48. -53. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -13. -17. -19. -21. -23. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 11. 9. 3. -3. -2. -2. -5. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 4. 6. 4. -9. -24. -41. -48. -56. -65. -77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 33.9 71.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 CHRIS 07/11/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.79 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.52 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 636.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.27 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 1.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 CHRIS 07/11/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 CHRIS 07/11/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 88 89 89 91 89 76 60 43 36 28 19 DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 85 85 87 85 72 56 39 32 24 15 DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 81 83 81 68 52 35 28 20 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 77 75 62 46 29 22 DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 64 51 35 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 88 79 73 70 68 55 39 22 15 DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 88 89 80 74 70 57 41 24 17 DIS DIS DIS