* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032018 07/10/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 80 81 82 85 79 69 52 38 34 30 18 V (KT) LAND 75 78 80 81 82 85 79 69 52 38 34 30 18 V (KT) LGEM 75 79 80 80 81 83 68 49 39 35 37 38 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 15 14 16 30 34 43 46 42 31 29 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 2 0 5 3 1 4 0 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 356 332 319 295 230 199 211 236 246 241 214 178 153 SST (C) 28.1 27.3 26.5 26.2 26.1 26.0 14.0 6.8 8.6 11.0 12.7 13.9 14.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 128 120 118 118 119 72 68 69 71 71 70 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 109 104 103 106 106 70 67 68 70 69 66 65 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.7 -54.0 -54.5 -54.1 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -54.2 -52.8 -50.9 -50.4 -50.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 -0.5 -0.4 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 34 34 41 47 47 48 42 39 35 34 39 43 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 19 20 21 28 29 27 21 18 19 20 15 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -16 15 16 27 44 59 11 -15 47 117 78 65 200 MB DIV 23 33 29 48 49 44 9 18 -4 -14 -18 -4 6 700-850 TADV 3 3 -1 12 3 -2 -12 -9 -37 -31 -16 -23 -12 LAND (KM) 362 412 483 595 582 411 273 40 546 1183 1127 662 382 LAT (DEG N) 33.4 34.1 34.7 35.8 36.9 40.3 43.9 46.9 49.3 51.3 52.8 53.8 54.4 LONG(DEG W) 72.8 71.7 70.7 69.2 67.7 63.0 58.1 52.5 45.6 37.0 26.9 20.1 15.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 13 16 21 25 25 25 28 31 26 17 13 HEAT CONTENT 13 7 0 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 8 CX,CY: 6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -9. -17. -24. -30. -35. -40. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -16. -20. -23. -26. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 8. 7. -1. -5. -5. -4. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 10. 4. -6. -23. -37. -41. -45. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 33.4 72.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 CHRIS 07/10/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.73 6.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.79 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 602.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.30 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.04 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.66 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 17.8% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 1.7% 1.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 6.5% 5.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 CHRIS 07/10/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 CHRIS 07/10/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 78 80 81 82 85 79 69 52 38 34 30 18 18HR AGO 75 74 76 77 78 81 75 65 48 34 30 26 DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 72 73 76 70 60 43 29 25 21 DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 66 69 63 53 36 22 18 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT