* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032018 07/10/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 66 67 72 78 74 62 47 38 36 30 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 66 67 72 78 74 62 47 38 36 30 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 64 65 67 73 74 56 43 37 36 37 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 11 13 10 23 32 36 37 45 37 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 -1 1 2 2 -1 3 0 4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 10 2 336 312 285 213 210 228 250 260 246 248 219 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 27.8 26.7 26.5 27.1 21.0 10.5 5.1 11.9 11.5 12.9 14.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 134 122 121 130 87 70 68 71 70 71 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 114 114 105 106 116 80 68 67 69 68 68 69 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 -54.6 -54.2 -54.9 -54.7 -54.7 -54.2 -53.0 -50.7 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.2 -0.6 0.2 0.7 0.4 1.2 1.0 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 37 35 36 40 46 49 46 43 42 39 37 37 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 20 19 24 32 30 24 18 17 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -22 -11 23 18 37 65 44 3 1 67 145 106 200 MB DIV 14 33 30 37 41 44 33 28 19 -13 -13 -13 -7 700-850 TADV -1 3 4 1 7 17 13 5 3 -17 -27 -15 -12 LAND (KM) 355 365 386 462 560 554 358 198 234 785 1385 1094 598 LAT (DEG N) 32.8 33.3 33.8 34.7 35.5 38.1 41.7 45.1 48.0 50.1 51.4 52.6 53.7 LONG(DEG W) 73.5 72.8 72.2 70.9 69.7 65.9 61.4 56.1 49.7 42.4 34.1 26.4 19.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 11 13 16 23 25 26 26 26 26 24 23 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 12 0 6 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -10. -14. -18. -22. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -7. -12. -18. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. 2. 10. 8. 1. -7. -9. -8. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 12. 18. 14. 2. -13. -22. -24. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 32.8 73.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 CHRIS 07/10/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.64 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 1.00 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 498.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.41 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.18 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 42.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.57 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 16.6% 13.9% 11.8% 10.1% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 1.8% 2.4% 1.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 6.1% 5.5% 4.3% 3.4% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 CHRIS 07/10/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 CHRIS 07/10/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 62 64 66 67 72 78 74 62 47 38 36 30 18HR AGO 60 59 61 63 64 69 75 71 59 44 35 33 27 12HR AGO 60 57 56 58 59 64 70 66 54 39 30 28 22 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 56 62 58 46 31 22 20 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT