* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032018 07/10/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 63 64 68 70 78 77 69 56 43 34 33 V (KT) LAND 60 62 63 64 68 70 78 77 69 56 43 33 33 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 64 66 68 71 76 64 49 40 36 35 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 12 9 14 12 24 34 42 46 48 41 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 0 -1 2 1 5 1 0 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 12 8 9 327 315 220 217 218 239 252 264 266 250 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.2 25.7 24.8 19.1 8.6 5.4 10.7 10.4 12.5 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 135 136 128 114 108 80 68 68 70 69 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 110 112 114 110 101 96 74 66 67 69 68 68 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -55.6 -55.0 -52.6 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 8 8 7 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 37 36 34 35 40 47 50 45 43 44 46 36 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 18 20 21 28 30 27 21 18 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -7 -20 -17 10 22 41 54 37 -23 -10 66 151 200 MB DIV -7 17 33 28 21 61 38 36 21 3 -6 -26 -7 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 5 11 20 21 16 -3 -28 -27 -2 LAND (KM) 341 345 355 372 411 600 474 296 170 146 761 1337 1142 LAT (DEG N) 32.4 32.7 33.0 33.6 34.2 36.3 39.3 42.5 45.5 48.0 49.9 51.4 52.6 LONG(DEG W) 74.2 73.8 73.3 72.5 71.7 68.6 64.5 60.7 56.8 50.9 42.7 34.8 27.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 7 9 13 19 22 21 22 26 27 25 24 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 12 13 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -12. -19. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 1. 1. 7. 10. 6. -1. -6. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. 18. 17. 9. -4. -17. -26. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 32.4 74.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 CHRIS 07/10/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.08 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 1.00 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 519.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.39 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.19 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.70 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 15.7% 13.2% 11.2% 9.7% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 1.7% 2.5% 1.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 5.8% 5.3% 4.2% 3.2% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 CHRIS 07/10/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 CHRIS 07/10/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 62 63 64 68 70 78 77 69 56 43 33 33 18HR AGO 60 59 60 61 65 67 75 74 66 53 40 30 30 12HR AGO 60 57 56 57 61 63 71 70 62 49 36 26 26 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 54 56 64 63 55 42 29 19 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT