* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032018 07/10/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 66 68 70 73 77 83 76 61 48 38 35 V (KT) LAND 60 63 66 68 70 73 77 83 76 55 47 37 34 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 67 70 72 74 77 74 57 44 38 37 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 12 12 9 12 25 30 33 41 49 40 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -2 -1 1 1 0 2 1 2 -3 0 3 SHEAR DIR 17 13 8 357 332 290 224 210 223 245 261 274 288 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.1 26.5 26.5 23.2 11.4 6.6 7.6 9.2 10.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 134 135 138 121 122 97 70 68 68 69 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 108 109 111 116 105 108 87 68 67 67 68 68 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.0 -53.6 -54.2 -53.9 -54.6 -54.6 -55.4 -55.4 -53.6 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.4 -0.4 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 8 8 7 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 37 36 35 34 35 46 48 47 43 42 41 34 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 19 20 22 25 32 29 22 18 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -19 -10 -24 -24 6 46 55 56 2 -27 48 134 200 MB DIV -2 -5 21 34 32 50 54 45 6 8 -11 -23 -29 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 3 0 9 10 19 12 16 -4 -28 12 LAND (KM) 345 343 343 351 362 494 546 366 207 -13 443 1034 1374 LAT (DEG N) 32.3 32.5 32.6 33.0 33.4 35.0 37.5 40.6 44.0 47.1 49.6 51.4 52.7 LONG(DEG W) 74.3 74.1 73.9 73.3 72.8 70.5 67.1 63.4 59.2 53.8 47.1 39.2 30.6 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 4 6 9 16 20 22 24 25 26 27 27 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 17 12 12 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):150/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -3. -7. -14. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 11. 9. -1. -6. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 13. 17. 23. 16. 1. -12. -22. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 32.3 74.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 CHRIS 07/10/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 6.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.10 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 1.00 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 529.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.38 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.18 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.62 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 19.9% 16.8% 13.6% 11.7% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 4.9% 8.2% 3.7% 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 8.3% 8.4% 5.8% 4.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 CHRIS 07/10/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 CHRIS 07/10/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 63 66 68 70 73 77 83 76 55 47 37 34 18HR AGO 60 59 62 64 66 69 73 79 72 51 43 33 30 12HR AGO 60 57 56 58 60 63 67 73 66 45 37 27 24 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 52 55 59 65 58 37 29 19 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT