* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032018 07/09/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 54 57 62 64 71 77 70 54 41 27 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 54 57 62 64 71 77 70 54 39 25 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 52 53 55 59 63 67 65 52 39 34 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 9 12 11 13 15 24 34 36 41 44 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -5 -3 -2 1 -1 1 2 0 3 1 4 SHEAR DIR 50 45 24 24 20 331 284 224 205 206 224 241 257 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 26.7 26.2 21.4 12.9 8.8 7.1 8.0 POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 130 131 134 138 122 119 88 70 67 66 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 105 103 105 110 116 106 104 80 67 66 65 66 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.8 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -53.6 -54.1 -54.0 -54.6 -54.2 -55.3 -55.8 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 1.2 0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 7 6 6 9 6 6 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 42 37 35 34 34 43 44 45 43 39 39 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 19 20 20 22 21 26 32 30 21 16 10 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -14 -29 -27 -15 -5 16 27 28 40 9 1 -29 200 MB DIV 11 14 -6 5 11 21 31 58 56 13 -8 -21 -10 700-850 TADV 2 1 1 0 0 3 7 9 4 -10 0 -4 -18 LAND (KM) 343 336 329 326 325 340 442 527 351 159 93 38 483 LAT (DEG N) 32.2 32.2 32.2 32.3 32.4 33.3 34.9 37.3 40.4 43.7 46.8 48.7 49.8 LONG(DEG W) 74.5 74.6 74.8 74.6 74.5 73.2 71.1 68.1 64.7 61.1 57.5 52.5 46.6 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 0 2 5 9 14 19 21 21 19 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 17 18 19 13 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):155/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -4. -9. -16. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 12. 9. -2. -10. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 14. 21. 27. 20. 4. -9. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 32.2 74.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 CHRIS 07/09/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.11 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.74 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 428.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.48 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.26 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.74 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 16.2% 13.6% 10.8% 9.3% 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 3.1% 4.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.7% 5.9% 4.1% 3.2% 4.2% 4.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 CHRIS 07/09/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 CHRIS 07/09/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 52 54 57 62 64 71 77 70 54 39 25 18HR AGO 50 49 50 52 55 60 62 69 75 68 52 37 23 12HR AGO 50 47 46 48 51 56 58 65 71 64 48 33 19 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 48 50 57 63 56 40 25 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT