* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032018 07/09/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 59 62 67 71 74 81 78 64 48 38 V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 59 62 67 71 74 81 78 64 40 35 V (KT) LGEM 50 53 55 58 60 64 67 70 74 63 47 34 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 8 11 17 14 17 17 30 31 34 41 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -1 -3 -4 0 0 1 0 2 6 0 1 SHEAR DIR 354 34 25 16 27 348 300 220 210 200 226 226 239 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.3 27.1 26.2 24.5 19.1 10.6 8.7 6.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 135 135 133 140 127 117 104 80 69 67 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 107 107 108 106 117 109 101 91 75 67 66 65 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.1 -54.8 -54.5 -54.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.6 -54.1 -54.2 -54.6 -54.9 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.1 0.3 1.0 -0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 7 7 6 9 7 8 4 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 42 42 37 36 33 40 45 48 48 44 45 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 20 20 20 20 21 22 23 31 31 26 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -1 -8 -26 -27 -17 24 15 40 35 0 -18 -19 200 MB DIV -3 12 9 -4 0 29 12 47 18 36 -2 -27 -6 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 1 1 5 -1 5 9 0 6 -23 -33 LAND (KM) 316 317 318 325 334 320 380 541 450 261 64 -56 338 LAT (DEG N) 32.5 32.6 32.6 32.5 32.3 32.8 34.6 36.5 38.8 41.8 45.6 48.5 50.7 LONG(DEG W) 74.5 74.4 74.3 74.4 74.5 74.0 71.9 69.4 66.7 63.3 59.3 54.6 49.3 STM SPEED (KT) 0 1 0 2 1 8 14 15 17 22 23 21 20 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 18 17 17 16 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 1. -3. -7. -13. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 12. 12. 5. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 21. 24. 31. 28. 14. -2. -12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 32.5 74.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 CHRIS 07/09/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.11 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.74 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 423.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.49 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.18 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 58.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.42 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 18.2% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 3.2% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 7.1% 6.3% 0.3% 0.1% 4.6% 4.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 17.0% 13.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 CHRIS 07/09/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 CHRIS 07/09/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 56 59 62 67 71 74 81 78 64 40 35 18HR AGO 50 49 52 55 58 63 67 70 77 74 60 36 31 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 52 57 61 64 71 68 54 30 25 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 48 52 55 62 59 45 21 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT