* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032018 07/09/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 69 72 79 82 84 88 86 69 54 44 V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 69 72 79 82 84 88 86 69 42 36 V (KT) LGEM 55 61 66 69 72 73 76 78 80 70 52 35 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 7 9 12 12 14 16 26 33 34 38 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 -1 -3 -1 -1 -1 2 1 5 2 1 SHEAR DIR 316 357 30 17 13 9 320 271 209 193 219 248 258 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.2 26.7 27.5 20.0 10.3 9.2 6.6 POT. INT. (KT) 135 135 135 135 134 138 139 123 134 84 69 68 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 107 107 107 107 112 117 107 118 78 68 66 65 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.1 -55.2 -55.0 -54.6 -54.2 -53.4 -54.0 -53.7 -54.4 -54.0 -54.4 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.8 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 7 8 6 9 6 5 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 42 44 42 38 34 34 43 46 51 49 42 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 19 20 20 23 23 23 28 33 27 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -20 3 -9 -26 -11 0 25 19 -9 -28 -33 20 200 MB DIV -12 4 9 11 -12 10 24 38 35 19 -9 -2 -20 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 1 1 0 6 1 6 -8 -25 -12 -2 LAND (KM) 307 317 327 336 345 324 326 453 480 285 83 -15 366 LAT (DEG N) 32.6 32.6 32.5 32.4 32.3 32.6 33.6 35.4 38.0 41.4 45.6 48.9 51.2 LONG(DEG W) 74.5 74.4 74.3 74.3 74.3 74.2 73.1 70.9 67.5 63.5 59.0 54.2 49.3 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 1 1 4 10 16 21 25 25 21 19 HEAT CONTENT 19 18 17 17 16 17 14 10 34 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):110/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -6. -11. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 5. 6. 11. 16. 8. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 17. 24. 27. 29. 33. 31. 14. -1. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 32.6 74.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 CHRIS 07/09/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.73 8.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.11 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 442.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.47 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.14 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.50 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.7% 29.8% 21.7% 18.0% 13.4% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.9% 15.6% 14.7% 4.3% 1.5% 3.2% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.0% 1.4% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.2% 15.6% 12.8% 7.5% 5.0% 7.8% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 17.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 CHRIS 07/09/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 CHRIS 07/09/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 60 65 69 72 79 82 84 88 86 69 42 36 18HR AGO 55 54 59 63 66 73 76 78 82 80 63 36 30 12HR AGO 55 52 51 55 58 65 68 70 74 72 55 28 22 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 55 58 60 64 62 45 18 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT