* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032018 07/08/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 58 60 65 67 74 79 84 76 63 51 V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 58 60 65 67 74 79 84 76 63 45 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 54 57 60 63 65 69 75 76 61 47 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 11 7 11 15 14 13 21 39 38 42 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 0 0 -1 -7 -1 -4 2 -1 1 0 4 SHEAR DIR 342 332 11 62 50 45 34 315 243 235 211 226 231 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 26.8 26.9 15.7 8.7 7.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 133 131 130 131 134 137 125 128 76 71 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 109 107 105 104 104 110 116 109 115 73 70 70 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.1 -55.3 -55.3 -55.1 -54.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 1.1 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 7 6 8 7 7 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 44 42 44 43 35 33 39 39 38 37 35 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 18 20 19 20 20 23 26 30 28 24 20 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -21 -31 -11 -21 -30 -6 27 38 50 26 11 55 200 MB DIV 20 5 -4 2 10 -7 21 17 78 43 31 2 -13 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 2 2 0 3 7 9 17 6 -17 -35 LAND (KM) 276 307 339 347 355 337 353 348 410 416 181 55 460 LAT (DEG N) 32.7 32.4 32.1 32.0 31.9 32.0 32.0 33.0 35.2 38.4 42.6 47.1 51.8 LONG(DEG W) 74.9 74.8 74.8 74.8 74.9 75.1 74.7 73.4 71.4 68.1 63.6 56.8 48.3 STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 2 1 1 0 5 10 17 24 30 35 35 HEAT CONTENT 22 20 16 15 14 16 14 12 11 15 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):140/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 0. -5. -11. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 1. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 5. 8. 13. 10. 5. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 15. 20. 22. 29. 34. 39. 31. 18. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 32.7 74.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 CHRIS 07/08/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 6.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.74 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.11 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.74 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 330.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.59 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.25 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 49.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.51 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 21.0% 17.7% 12.8% 10.9% 13.6% 15.1% 0.0% Logistic: 8.8% 15.1% 13.8% 3.3% 1.1% 2.1% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 6.9% 1.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 7.8% 12.5% 10.9% 5.5% 4.0% 5.3% 5.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 9.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 51.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 CHRIS 07/08/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 CHRIS 07/08/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 54 58 60 65 67 74 79 84 76 63 45 18HR AGO 45 44 49 53 55 60 62 69 74 79 71 58 40 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 47 52 54 61 66 71 63 50 32 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 42 44 51 56 61 53 40 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT