* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CHRIS AL032018 07/08/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 48 52 56 64 71 76 79 84 79 64 48 V (KT) LAND 40 44 48 52 56 64 71 76 79 84 79 64 40 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 48 52 55 61 65 68 71 73 59 47 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 8 12 12 6 12 14 14 21 35 33 48 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -4 0 2 1 -1 -2 -2 -5 -3 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 327 318 310 347 21 33 2 324 240 211 225 236 242 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 27.8 26.5 21.6 13.3 9.0 5.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 139 138 137 137 139 135 122 90 72 69 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 111 110 109 109 109 114 115 107 82 69 67 66 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.5 -55.2 -55.3 -55.4 -54.8 -54.5 -53.8 -54.2 -53.7 -54.3 -53.4 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 2 5 6 5 4 7 6 9 5 4 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 47 43 40 41 36 35 40 49 49 49 48 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 17 18 20 23 24 24 31 32 26 23 850 MB ENV VOR 10 4 -15 -27 -7 -28 -12 6 41 38 3 -7 44 200 MB DIV 15 29 0 -7 -7 -7 13 37 49 18 -9 -16 -24 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 -5 -27 -27 -33 -53 LAND (KM) 216 228 240 251 263 289 298 352 516 412 156 7 228 LAT (DEG N) 33.3 33.2 33.1 33.0 32.9 32.8 33.2 34.4 36.7 39.8 43.7 47.5 51.0 LONG(DEG W) 75.0 75.0 74.9 74.8 74.8 74.5 73.9 72.3 69.6 65.8 61.2 56.4 51.7 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 1 1 2 6 12 19 24 25 25 22 HEAT CONTENT 25 24 23 23 22 20 17 10 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 5. 0. -5. -11. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 16. 17. 10. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 24. 31. 36. 39. 44. 39. 24. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 33.3 75.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 CHRIS 07/08/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.15 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.24 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.47 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 293.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.62 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.28 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 58.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.41 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 15.0% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 11.8% 13.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 5.7% 4.8% 0.2% 0.0% 3.8% 4.0% 4.3% DTOPS: 3.0% 14.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 17.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 CHRIS 07/08/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 CHRIS 07/08/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 48 52 56 64 71 76 79 84 79 64 40 18HR AGO 40 39 43 47 51 59 66 71 74 79 74 59 35 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 44 52 59 64 67 72 67 52 28 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 42 49 54 57 62 57 42 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT