* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032018 07/08/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 46 49 56 60 67 73 80 82 76 59 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 46 49 56 60 67 73 80 82 76 49 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 43 46 51 56 59 63 70 63 51 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 9 11 13 8 16 15 17 25 31 33 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -3 0 1 2 -3 0 -5 1 6 3 2 SHEAR DIR 314 331 329 316 349 41 24 335 280 204 208 197 216 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 27.9 26.9 22.9 15.6 8.7 5.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 139 138 138 138 140 136 126 96 75 69 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 111 111 110 110 111 115 116 111 88 72 67 67 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.6 -55.4 -55.2 -55.3 -55.1 -54.9 -54.2 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.4 0.2 1.0 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 5 6 5 7 7 8 7 5 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 50 48 43 40 39 36 38 50 54 52 52 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 15 16 19 19 22 24 28 34 34 27 850 MB ENV VOR -2 5 -4 -19 -30 -13 -30 -24 51 65 48 24 17 200 MB DIV 0 9 19 3 -15 14 1 27 33 66 4 26 -24 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 0 1 3 0 10 -7 -33 -20 -60 -51 LAND (KM) 200 212 224 245 267 292 320 348 516 458 199 14 271 LAT (DEG N) 33.2 33.2 33.1 33.0 32.8 32.7 32.8 33.9 36.1 39.3 43.4 47.4 51.2 LONG(DEG W) 75.5 75.3 75.2 75.0 74.9 74.6 74.0 72.6 70.0 66.0 60.8 55.8 51.1 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 2 2 1 2 5 11 19 26 27 25 24 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 24 23 22 19 15 10 11 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 13. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 2. -3. -8. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 5. 8. 10. 15. 22. 22. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 25. 33. 38. 45. 47. 41. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 33.2 75.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 THREE 07/08/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.15 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.68 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.33 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.54 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 14.6% 12.3% 9.6% 7.8% 10.7% 10.3% 12.3% Logistic: 1.0% 1.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.4% 4.5% 3.3% 2.6% 3.7% 3.5% 4.1% DTOPS: 3.0% 13.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 32.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 THREE 07/08/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 THREE 07/08/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 42 46 49 56 60 67 73 80 82 76 49 18HR AGO 35 34 38 42 45 52 56 63 69 76 78 72 45 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 38 45 49 56 62 69 71 65 38 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 35 39 46 52 59 61 55 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT