* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032018 07/08/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 42 46 54 59 66 68 75 80 81 67 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 42 46 54 59 66 68 75 80 81 63 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 38 41 48 54 58 60 63 67 57 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 13 12 11 11 3 14 18 20 11 15 19 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -5 -3 -1 3 -1 -1 -3 -3 3 6 6 SHEAR DIR 318 318 321 327 320 2 23 5 330 278 247 215 225 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 27.6 26.5 26.8 19.8 8.5 5.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 140 140 138 136 138 131 121 127 84 68 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 110 112 112 111 109 112 111 106 115 78 67 66 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.6 -55.8 -55.6 -55.3 -55.6 -55.0 -55.1 -54.2 -55.2 -54.9 -54.3 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 -0.1 -0.1 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 6 6 8 7 9 6 2 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 54 53 50 46 42 37 40 46 60 60 55 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 13 13 14 17 18 20 20 24 27 30 25 850 MB ENV VOR 8 -5 -4 -8 -19 8 -32 -21 15 52 33 16 35 200 MB DIV 23 6 16 34 -7 7 -2 13 47 61 26 9 0 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 0 0 1 0 5 17 -3 -13 -46 -80 LAND (KM) 257 262 269 291 314 348 340 377 554 568 364 106 148 LAT (DEG N) 32.8 32.9 32.9 32.9 32.8 32.8 33.0 33.8 35.2 38.0 41.9 45.9 49.8 LONG(DEG W) 75.1 74.9 74.7 74.4 74.1 73.6 73.5 72.3 69.8 65.8 60.5 55.8 51.6 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 3 2 1 4 10 17 25 27 25 23 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 21 19 16 11 11 8 4 19 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 16. 17. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 5. 4. 2. -1. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 8. 6. 11. 15. 18. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 12. 16. 24. 29. 36. 38. 45. 50. 51. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.8 75.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 THREE 07/08/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.13 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.75 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.38 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 13.7% 11.7% 8.3% 6.5% 9.4% 9.3% 13.1% Logistic: 2.6% 8.9% 4.5% 2.0% 1.0% 3.5% 3.5% 0.6% Bayesian: 2.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 7.8% 5.4% 3.5% 2.5% 4.3% 4.3% 4.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 43.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 THREE 07/08/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 THREE 07/08/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 38 42 46 54 59 66 68 75 80 81 63 18HR AGO 30 29 34 38 42 50 55 62 64 71 76 77 59 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 42 47 54 56 63 68 69 51 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 32 37 44 46 53 58 59 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT