* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032018 07/07/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 47 53 60 64 66 71 77 75 67 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 47 53 60 64 66 71 77 75 64 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 41 47 54 58 60 63 65 60 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 11 13 13 12 12 3 10 9 7 8 26 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -6 -2 -2 5 -1 1 0 4 8 9 SHEAR DIR 316 315 319 313 316 329 347 25 17 269 213 250 241 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.3 27.5 26.6 26.5 27.2 23.9 11.2 7.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 139 141 142 138 128 119 120 130 102 70 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 110 111 113 114 112 106 100 102 113 92 68 67 200 MB T (C) -55.8 -55.6 -55.7 -56.0 -55.8 -55.5 -55.6 -55.4 -55.2 -55.2 -55.1 -54.2 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.6 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 5 6 7 7 8 7 4 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 55 55 53 52 46 46 41 39 45 52 48 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 11 12 12 13 15 15 15 17 20 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 22 2 -10 -5 -9 -16 -2 -9 -6 55 27 26 72 200 MB DIV 51 17 8 27 29 -14 13 4 35 26 67 35 -4 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 0 0 1 4 5 6 2 27 37 -10 LAND (KM) 238 248 258 269 284 340 414 466 562 532 450 284 8 LAT (DEG N) 32.9 32.9 32.9 33.0 33.1 33.0 33.3 34.4 35.8 37.9 40.4 44.3 48.5 LONG(DEG W) 75.3 75.1 74.9 74.5 74.2 73.5 72.2 71.0 69.6 66.6 62.0 57.2 53.0 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 3 3 4 6 8 13 19 24 26 25 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 22 20 18 11 8 1 5 21 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 16. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 6. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 1. 3. 6. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 23. 30. 34. 36. 41. 47. 45. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.9 75.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 THREE 07/07/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.14 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 152.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.77 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.39 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 19.4% 16.6% 11.1% 9.0% 11.5% 12.1% 18.2% Logistic: 8.3% 25.6% 15.0% 5.3% 3.1% 8.4% 5.2% 0.7% Bayesian: 4.2% 2.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 6.4% 15.8% 10.7% 5.5% 4.0% 6.7% 5.8% 6.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 12.0% 4.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 26.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 THREE 07/07/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 THREE 07/07/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 43 47 53 60 64 66 71 77 75 64 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 42 48 55 59 61 66 72 70 59 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 35 41 48 52 54 59 65 63 52 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 30 37 41 43 48 54 52 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT