* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032018 07/07/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 38 43 49 57 61 67 71 71 68 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 38 43 49 57 61 67 71 71 68 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 43 47 51 55 58 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 10 14 14 13 6 4 7 3 13 32 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 -4 -5 -1 1 2 0 0 3 -3 4 SHEAR DIR 20 318 304 298 293 294 325 15 44 4 276 250 251 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.2 27.0 27.0 26.9 23.7 19.2 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 140 140 138 138 137 123 125 125 98 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 111 111 111 111 110 109 110 102 105 106 86 72 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -55.9 -55.5 -55.7 -55.9 -55.5 -55.7 -55.5 -55.6 -55.9 -56.5 -56.3 -56.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 4 4 6 5 7 6 9 7 6 2 700-500 MB RH 57 57 53 51 50 45 43 37 36 38 46 48 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 10 11 10 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 19 16 0 -6 -4 -25 -1 -17 -4 28 66 50 11 200 MB DIV 31 50 14 13 31 -9 8 -7 8 26 48 16 8 700-850 TADV 2 3 3 2 0 -1 1 6 3 -3 30 24 10 LAND (KM) 254 240 227 237 248 269 290 315 380 508 511 435 325 LAT (DEG N) 33.0 33.2 33.4 33.5 33.5 33.7 33.7 33.9 34.6 35.8 37.6 39.6 41.9 LONG(DEG W) 74.8 74.7 74.7 74.5 74.3 73.8 73.5 73.0 71.9 70.2 67.7 65.0 61.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 4 8 11 14 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 23 23 22 20 17 14 5 11 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 5. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 18. 24. 32. 36. 42. 46. 46. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 33.0 74.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 THREE 07/07/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.14 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.12 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.79 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.42 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.98 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 13.0% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 5.1% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.1% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 3.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 10.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 THREE 07/07/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 THREE 07/07/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 38 43 49 57 61 67 71 71 68 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 35 40 46 54 58 64 68 68 65 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 29 34 40 48 52 58 62 62 59 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 25 31 39 43 49 53 53 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT