* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032018 07/07/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 32 35 43 49 58 65 71 74 82 85 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 32 35 43 49 58 65 71 74 82 85 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 25 26 29 33 39 45 51 57 64 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 6 8 12 16 13 4 3 13 6 11 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -1 0 -4 -2 0 0 -4 -2 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 31 22 4 307 300 296 287 11 87 83 86 246 241 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.6 27.2 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 141 142 141 141 141 141 139 140 144 128 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 116 113 114 112 111 111 112 111 112 119 111 107 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -56.1 -56.2 -56.0 -55.5 -56.0 -55.6 -55.6 -55.3 -55.6 -55.1 -55.5 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 5 6 5 3 6 6 9 7 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 56 55 55 54 50 48 43 40 36 35 38 48 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 11 11 13 14 15 14 17 20 850 MB ENV VOR -5 13 25 19 3 -3 -29 -19 -41 -18 -5 38 35 200 MB DIV 36 28 29 30 6 20 -10 -3 -4 12 13 45 9 700-850 TADV 0 -1 1 4 2 0 -1 0 2 0 0 4 10 LAND (KM) 353 297 242 227 213 227 248 283 298 305 284 426 503 LAT (DEG N) 32.4 32.9 33.3 33.6 33.9 33.9 34.0 33.7 33.2 33.2 33.9 35.4 37.6 LONG(DEG W) 74.0 74.3 74.6 74.5 74.4 74.2 73.8 73.6 73.9 73.8 73.4 71.2 67.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 1 2 8 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 12 18 23 26 31 29 27 19 17 16 19 15 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 7. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 10. 18. 25. 33. 40. 46. 49. 57. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 32.4 74.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 THREE 07/07/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.14 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.79 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.44 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 14.1% 12.3% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 6.5% 2.9% 1.0% 0.5% 2.9% 1.8% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 6.9% 5.1% 3.2% 0.2% 1.0% 3.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 THREE 07/07/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 THREE 07/07/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 32 35 43 49 58 65 71 74 82 85 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 33 41 47 56 63 69 72 80 83 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 28 36 42 51 58 64 67 75 78 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 26 32 41 48 54 57 65 68 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT