* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032018 07/06/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 43 49 54 62 66 73 79 80 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 43 49 54 62 66 73 79 80 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 43 49 55 61 67 70 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 9 7 7 12 9 11 6 8 10 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -3 -4 -2 -3 -1 0 3 0 -1 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 108 36 28 6 338 309 309 343 73 63 38 331 271 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 141 140 140 137 138 138 138 138 140 146 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 115 114 113 111 107 109 109 109 109 112 121 109 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -55.8 -56.2 -56.3 -56.1 -55.7 -55.9 -55.7 -55.5 -55.2 -55.0 -54.4 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 7 5 6 5 6 5 7 7 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 54 56 55 56 56 52 48 41 39 34 35 44 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 14 14 17 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -7 13 13 14 -7 -15 -51 -21 -36 -18 14 33 200 MB DIV 8 29 30 22 33 25 17 -11 16 -1 11 6 34 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 2 4 2 0 0 1 0 1 -1 3 LAND (KM) 405 347 289 264 241 227 220 220 234 234 227 254 387 LAT (DEG N) 32.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 3 8 11 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 19 20 23 25 25 25 24 24 25 25 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 6. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 24. 29. 37. 41. 48. 54. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 32.0 73.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032018 THREE 07/06/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.11 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 125.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.80 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.44 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 15.8% 13.7% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 18.2% 9.3% 4.0% 2.5% 8.6% 5.4% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 11.5% 7.7% 4.4% 0.8% 2.9% 5.2% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032018 THREE 07/06/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032018 THREE 07/06/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 36 43 49 54 62 66 73 79 80 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 33 40 46 51 59 63 70 76 77 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 35 41 46 54 58 65 71 72 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 26 32 37 45 49 56 62 63 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT