* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CINDY AL032017 06/22/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 36 33 35 30 29 30 30 29 29 26 V (KT) LAND 40 34 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 34 31 29 28 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 11 10 13 11 22 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 3 12 2 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 232 215 223 249 225 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.6 25.9 24.0 22.6 21.6 22.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 131 113 98 91 89 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 114 99 87 82 82 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 11 14 9 8 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 53 55 54 53 59 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 19 17 14 12 16 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 -13 17 -1 -32 -17 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 50 29 23 25 72 70 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 3 -2 25 21 21 -48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 62 -46 -156 -275 -378 -502 -511 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.2 30.2 31.2 32.3 33.3 35.2 37.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.6 93.6 93.5 92.8 92.2 88.5 82.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 14 21 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 2. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -5. -8. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -7. -5. -10. -11. -10. -10. -11. -11. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 29.2 93.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032017 CINDY 06/22/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.66 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.04 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.40 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.28 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.33 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 238.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.70 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 45.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.55 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 12.9% 10.4% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 4.6% 3.6% 2.3% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032017 CINDY 06/22/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032017 CINDY 06/22/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 34 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 36 34 33 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 33 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT