* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CINDY AL032017 06/21/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 43 42 38 33 30 21 20 20 19 16 V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 43 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 43 42 41 35 29 28 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 19 22 19 15 14 21 32 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 0 2 2 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 235 213 194 204 202 207 199 220 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.7 24.3 21.3 21.7 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 137 135 132 101 86 89 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 118 117 115 113 89 78 81 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -52.0 -51.7 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 9 5 5 14 7 9 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 54 53 49 51 48 56 56 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 23 21 20 15 15 15 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 69 60 24 10 30 -44 -37 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 47 54 37 15 14 54 89 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 2 10 2 12 15 30 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 245 181 119 46 -28 -247 -469 -556 -436 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.4 28.1 28.7 29.4 30.0 32.0 34.4 35.7 36.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.4 92.8 93.3 93.6 93.9 93.7 91.7 87.7 82.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 8 12 16 19 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 6 4 5 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -11. -13. -15. -20. -21. -21. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -15. -24. -25. -25. -26. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 27.4 92.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032017 CINDY 06/21/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.38 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.06 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.38 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.63 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.39 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.31 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 237.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.70 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 22.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.78 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 11.4% 9.0% 6.3% 0.0% 10.4% 8.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.2% 3.2% 2.1% 0.0% 3.5% 2.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032017 CINDY 06/21/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032017 CINDY 06/21/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 44 44 43 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 44 43 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 34 27 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 29 22 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT