* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CINDY AL032017 06/20/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 45 46 44 40 32 32 25 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 45 46 44 36 30 28 27 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 41 42 42 42 40 33 29 27 27 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 26 24 22 21 19 10 5 25 40 57 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 0 0 -2 7 -1 15 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 233 240 232 214 211 204 193 212 225 231 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.6 23.9 21.2 21.8 22.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 135 135 137 137 131 98 85 90 93 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 116 116 117 118 118 112 87 78 83 86 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 8 6 11 10 9 3 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 63 58 55 56 52 53 50 63 44 36 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 25 24 24 21 17 11 13 12 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 90 82 71 64 80 26 10 -66 -31 -1 -5 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 126 135 64 22 47 32 21 47 70 54 -17 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 2 -1 0 3 7 -7 12 -8 0 -55 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 377 335 299 273 249 109 -57 -281 -472 -633 -396 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.1 26.5 27.0 27.4 28.8 30.3 32.3 34.6 36.3 37.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.7 91.2 91.6 92.1 92.7 93.4 93.5 92.8 90.9 86.7 80.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 12 16 23 25 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 12 13 14 16 4 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. -1. -6. -14. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -10. -19. -18. -20. -33. -33. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 0. -8. -8. -15. -36. -38. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 25.7 90.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032017 CINDY 06/20/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.23 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.08 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.70 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.43 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.51 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 150.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 17.4% 13.4% 8.3% 7.3% 12.1% 13.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 3.2% 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% 1.2% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 7.0% 5.0% 2.8% 2.5% 4.2% 4.7% 0.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032017 CINDY 06/20/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032017 CINDY 06/20/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 45 46 44 36 30 28 27 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 41 42 43 41 33 27 25 24 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 36 28 22 20 19 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 29 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT