* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032017 06/20/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 39 43 45 44 45 43 37 34 28 27 24 V (KT) LAND 35 36 39 43 45 44 45 38 31 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 37 35 33 31 27 27 27 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 26 25 23 29 22 20 12 13 8 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 2 -1 0 1 0 1 10 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 226 229 218 219 240 220 213 212 226 267 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 27.8 24.7 22.2 21.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 136 135 135 135 137 134 103 88 84 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 123 119 117 115 116 118 115 90 79 76 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -52.1 -51.6 -51.4 -51.7 -51.1 -51.7 -51.3 -51.8 -51.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 9 5 10 5 14 9 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 66 65 63 58 51 51 51 54 58 64 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 25 28 29 25 25 22 16 15 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 83 92 100 94 77 66 -2 -4 -54 -59 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 102 95 100 127 98 7 44 6 15 73 82 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 8 3 3 5 0 9 -6 13 40 28 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 289 386 401 350 304 265 180 -4 -224 -402 -497 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.8 25.5 26.0 26.4 27.0 28.1 29.8 31.8 33.6 35.0 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.2 89.8 90.4 90.8 91.3 92.1 93.1 93.7 93.6 92.1 89.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 9 8 6 5 6 8 9 10 12 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 8 9 10 10 12 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 2. 1. -2. -11. -14. -19. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 10. 9. 10. 8. 2. -1. -7. -8. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.0 89.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032017 THREE 06/20/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.13 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.06 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.70 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.50 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.63 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 124.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 21.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 14.1% 10.3% 5.7% 4.7% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.2% 3.7% 1.9% 1.6% 3.4% 0.2% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032017 THREE 06/20/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032017 THREE 06/20/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 39 43 45 44 45 38 31 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 37 41 43 42 43 36 29 26 25 25 25 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 37 36 37 30 23 20 19 19 19 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 26 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT