* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL032016 06/07/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 48 45 42 30 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 48 45 42 30 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 51 49 45 41 31 24 22 23 23 24 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 53 57 68 69 74 65 43 34 27 23 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 10 5 -1 -2 -10 -2 -2 2 1 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 231 233 237 242 258 245 236 229 212 202 N/A N/A SST (C) 23.9 24.2 21.7 19.2 11.0 3.5 3.9 8.5 8.4 7.1 6.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 105 108 94 85 72 66 64 65 64 62 61 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 102 104 90 82 71 N/A N/A 64 63 61 60 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.9 -50.5 -50.6 -50.9 -49.9 -46.5 -45.2 -44.2 -45.4 -45.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.3 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 57 59 56 56 45 55 57 63 73 70 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 21 21 23 18 20 26 24 23 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 89 137 164 157 146 227 259 275 205 201 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 95 101 91 98 87 46 32 46 16 38 21 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 52 24 -27 43 12 72 38 27 29 -4 -9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 128 424 450 392 363 157 410 705 994 1206 1332 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.4 37.3 39.2 41.3 43.4 47.0 49.4 51.2 52.4 53.4 54.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.5 70.3 66.2 61.6 57.1 50.9 47.5 44.0 40.2 37.4 35.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 37 38 39 40 34 22 15 14 11 8 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 35 CX,CY: 27/ 22 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -15. -25. -34. -39. -43. -52. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. -3. -1. 5. 2. 0. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -20. -26. -29. -40. -50. -61. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 35.4 74.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032016 COLIN 06/07/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 64.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.10 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 67.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 210.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.73 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032016 COLIN 06/07/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032016 COLIN 06/07/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 50 50 48 45 42 30 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 49 47 44 41 29 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 44 41 38 26 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 37 34 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT