* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL032016 06/07/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 43 41 39 33 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 45 43 41 39 33 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 44 43 40 36 28 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 45 52 57 72 75 76 63 42 29 14 8 9 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 4 15 4 0 -11 0 2 6 -5 -4 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 241 242 231 226 230 245 246 248 242 243 283 272 263 SST (C) 25.6 24.1 24.2 22.3 20.1 7.8 2.9 7.9 7.7 7.0 7.4 8.0 8.9 POT. INT. (KT) 117 106 107 97 87 69 66 67 66 64 62 62 62 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 101 104 93 84 68 N/A 66 65 63 61 61 61 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.3 -50.9 -50.7 -51.0 -51.1 -48.8 -46.5 -44.9 -45.3 -45.4 -46.0 -46.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 56 57 59 58 53 51 52 59 64 65 64 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 81 89 122 160 147 199 259 259 209 213 154 132 200 MB DIV 63 73 76 69 105 63 39 61 52 55 32 21 3 700-850 TADV -9 44 20 -93 2 4 17 36 26 2 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 56 116 382 441 385 230 273 691 1147 1481 1322 1193 1137 LAT (DEG N) 33.4 35.1 36.7 38.8 40.9 44.7 47.3 50.0 52.7 54.5 55.3 56.3 57.5 LONG(DEG W) 78.2 74.8 71.3 66.8 62.4 54.5 49.2 43.7 38.0 33.4 30.4 28.3 27.0 STM SPEED (KT) 31 33 37 41 37 29 23 22 19 13 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 29 CX,CY: 24/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -14. -27. -38. -43. -47. -49. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -4. -6. -12. -19. -29. -41. -47. -53. -58. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 33.4 78.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032016 COLIN 06/07/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 60.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.21 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.23 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 28.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 204.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.74 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032016 COLIN 06/07/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032016 COLIN 06/07/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 43 41 39 33 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 42 40 38 32 25 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 39 37 31 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 33 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT