* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL032016 06/06/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 50 52 50 50 38 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 46 36 40 41 39 40 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 46 36 38 38 37 33 27 22 19 17 19 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 31 37 42 48 63 71 72 65 52 29 11 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 7 7 0 5 9 -2 -3 0 9 5 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 240 243 243 243 239 237 249 268 261 266 251 238 284 SST (C) 28.0 27.4 25.9 25.5 24.1 22.9 15.0 5.8 14.0 12.3 9.5 8.5 9.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 134 118 116 106 100 77 69 72 69 66 65 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 126 113 111 103 96 75 69 69 67 65 63 63 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -51.1 -50.6 -51.3 -50.4 -48.6 -48.0 -47.0 -45.4 -44.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.8 2.0 2.9 4.2 3.3 2.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 5 5 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 66 61 54 48 49 51 44 42 50 60 64 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 21 23 25 31 29 33 30 26 24 26 850 MB ENV VOR 49 -2 5 24 69 112 146 145 185 215 239 273 276 200 MB DIV 112 128 84 84 85 60 108 20 42 67 69 64 39 700-850 TADV 25 37 35 26 28 -63 30 -9 -16 3 -44 -12 10 LAND (KM) 183 25 -91 22 42 442 485 468 945 1320 1433 1208 1076 LAT (DEG N) 28.2 29.9 31.5 33.1 34.7 38.5 42.2 44.8 46.6 48.8 51.7 54.1 56.3 LONG(DEG W) 86.2 84.3 82.3 79.1 76.0 67.3 56.8 47.7 40.4 35.0 31.2 28.5 26.4 STM SPEED (KT) 22 24 27 31 35 42 40 31 24 20 17 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 20 CX,CY: 7/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -12. -25. -38. -49. -56. -59. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 13. 16. 12. 7. 3. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 5. 5. -7. -15. -32. -46. -54. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 28.2 86.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032016 COLIN 06/06/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.64 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.40 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 176.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.6% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032016 COLIN 06/06/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032016 COLIN 06/06/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 36 40 41 39 40 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 34 38 39 37 38 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 46 44 45 33 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 34 35 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT