* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL032016 06/06/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 52 54 52 50 41 36 26 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 39 44 43 41 31 26 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 40 42 41 36 29 24 20 18 19 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 22 31 32 45 59 68 80 68 62 40 27 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 12 9 0 8 1 -3 0 1 9 3 3 SHEAR DIR 233 242 246 247 247 240 243 260 266 258 244 239 207 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.4 26.2 25.4 24.0 21.9 9.4 4.0 12.4 9.6 8.2 7.5 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 133 121 114 106 95 72 68 70 66 64 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 133 126 113 109 103 91 70 N/A 68 65 63 62 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -50.6 -50.7 -50.8 -49.2 -46.2 -46.1 -46.0 -45.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.2 -0.4 -1.0 0.1 1.7 2.7 3.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 5 5 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 73 68 61 54 46 48 45 41 51 61 66 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 19 18 20 21 25 24 26 28 26 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR 63 41 2 -3 16 62 144 153 197 239 182 197 208 200 MB DIV 110 130 131 87 69 54 86 69 23 36 44 60 33 700-850 TADV 13 28 40 39 21 -25 48 69 105 106 47 18 -12 LAND (KM) 358 191 50 -39 33 292 423 326 497 1002 1420 1357 1271 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 28.0 29.6 31.1 32.6 36.0 40.1 43.8 46.9 49.4 51.4 53.4 55.5 LONG(DEG W) 87.3 85.7 84.2 81.9 79.6 72.6 63.2 54.4 46.3 39.3 33.6 30.6 29.6 STM SPEED (KT) 19 21 23 25 29 38 40 35 29 24 17 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 53 8 11 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 17 CX,CY: 3/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 3. 1. -1. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -11. -23. -36. -48. -57. -62. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -10. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 5. 10. 9. 12. 13. 10. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 9. 7. 5. -4. -9. -19. -33. -44. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 26.4 87.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032016 COLIN 06/06/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.66 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.8 to -3.1 0.63 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.45 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 165.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 6.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032016 COLIN 06/06/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032016 COLIN 06/06/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 51 39 44 43 41 31 26 16 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 47 35 40 39 37 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 29 34 33 31 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 40 39 37 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT