* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * COLIN AL032016 06/06/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 41 41 43 41 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 41 34 39 37 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 30 32 30 25 20 16 15 16 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 23 25 30 44 62 74 81 73 57 40 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 5 10 8 -1 0 -8 -15 -3 -1 3 -3 SHEAR DIR 249 243 241 259 256 249 235 246 268 272 270 255 241 SST (C) 27.9 27.6 26.8 25.7 25.0 24.8 23.0 17.6 3.5 10.1 10.4 7.6 6.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 125 115 110 111 101 81 69 70 67 65 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 127 117 106 104 109 97 78 N/A 68 66 63 63 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.1 -50.6 -50.7 -50.6 -49.0 -47.3 -46.0 -45.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 1.0 2.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 8 6 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 78 77 75 71 66 51 46 48 51 46 56 64 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 17 19 18 19 20 17 15 14 15 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 65 39 30 12 -1 43 77 136 141 194 200 191 203 200 MB DIV 111 108 128 134 86 61 56 78 44 17 51 47 47 700-850 TADV 14 18 29 48 50 36 -81 -25 57 140 127 51 24 LAND (KM) 313 417 233 73 -68 157 508 451 337 785 1213 1454 1470 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 26.0 27.6 29.0 30.4 33.4 37.7 41.6 44.8 47.7 50.3 52.7 55.2 LONG(DEG W) 87.6 86.6 85.5 83.8 82.1 76.2 67.5 58.6 49.7 42.3 36.4 33.4 32.7 STM SPEED (KT) 14 19 19 20 25 36 40 38 33 26 19 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 21 49 10 12 0 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 10 CX,CY: 2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -3. -14. -28. -43. -56. -65. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 0. -3. -6. -5. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 6. 8. 6. -4. -15. -28. -38. -42. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 24.4 87.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032016 COLIN 06/06/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.22 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.63 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.52 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.67 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.48 0.7 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 82.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 15.3% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.9% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032016 COLIN 06/06/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032016 COLIN 06/06/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 41 34 39 37 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 36 39 32 37 35 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 27 32 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 18 23 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT