* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032016 06/05/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 34 33 33 30 31 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 34 29 32 28 30 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 28 25 26 24 23 20 18 19 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 26 25 28 30 42 53 61 62 67 48 34 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 7 3 5 5 0 2 0 -3 4 7 9 SHEAR DIR 225 229 234 235 236 251 245 240 256 264 257 257 251 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.3 26.4 24.5 23.7 22.3 16.4 3.3 10.4 11.0 9.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 136 130 120 106 104 97 79 69 70 69 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 126 125 119 110 100 100 93 76 N/A 68 67 66 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 -51.2 -50.7 -51.2 -51.4 -49.7 -48.7 -47.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 1.0 2.4 1.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 7 5 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 77 76 75 73 65 56 56 55 39 42 49 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 14 15 16 16 18 19 25 23 23 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR 61 66 58 26 29 -1 78 129 149 155 232 208 186 200 MB DIV 86 98 117 103 118 73 73 77 129 52 49 72 54 700-850 TADV 9 9 9 17 28 53 37 -41 98 10 -17 2 -9 LAND (KM) 122 275 429 330 156 -95 52 453 430 323 806 1299 1291 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 24.1 25.4 26.9 28.3 31.0 34.4 38.1 41.9 45.1 47.8 50.0 52.0 LONG(DEG W) 88.1 87.6 87.1 86.4 85.6 82.5 76.2 67.9 58.4 49.6 42.0 35.2 29.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 15 16 17 25 35 40 38 33 27 23 21 HEAT CONTENT 12 19 43 21 6 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 13. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -3. -13. -24. -37. -49. -57. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 11. 7. 7. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. 0. 1. -11. -21. -26. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.7 88.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032016 THREE 06/05/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.09 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 20.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.62 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.56 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 28.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.91 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.5% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032016 THREE 06/05/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032016 THREE 06/05/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 34 29 32 28 30 18 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 33 28 31 27 29 17 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 24 27 23 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 17 20 16 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT