* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912020 05/27/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 31 31 27 29 26 34 33 26 26 20 18 18 19 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 27 27 27 29 30 32 38 37 30 30 24 22 22 23 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 24 25 27 29 30 34 38 41 41 41 39 37 38 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 17 15 14 19 29 29 29 13 14 17 18 14 14 12 12 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 7 6 2 0 2 0 -3 -3 -6 -4 -2 -1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 186 199 194 180 179 188 223 257 294 350 28 80 109 146 193 190 212 SST (C) 25.4 25.3 25.2 24.9 23.4 18.1 14.1 7.8 4.6 3.1 9.9 15.5 16.2 17.2 14.4 8.2 8.7 POT. INT. (KT) 108 108 108 106 97 77 73 70 69 68 67 69 69 70 67 66 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 94 95 94 87 73 70 69 68 N/A 65 65 64 65 64 65 67 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.1 -55.3 -55.3 -55.3 -55.7 -55.6 -55.8 -55.9 -56.6 -56.9 -57.3 -57.6 -57.7 -57.5 -57.7 -57.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.1 -0.3 -0.6 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 4 4 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 63 64 63 62 65 64 67 61 61 56 50 45 45 43 45 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 11 10 8 7 3 7 7 14 14 11 11 7 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 -6 -7 -7 -20 -50 -27 -5 -26 -61 -109 -152 -125 -130 -132 -149 -153 200 MB DIV 50 28 22 48 48 36 18 6 -1 -13 -42 -38 -27 0 -4 33 21 700-850 TADV 22 27 16 31 36 29 56 0 -7 25 18 23 11 5 7 1 7 LAND (KM) 77 112 48 -59 -177 -310 -229 -97 81 184 699 972 1046 972 818 659 701 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 30.9 32.0 33.4 35.0 38.7 42.4 45.3 46.8 46.8 45.5 43.6 42.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.5 80.3 80.2 80.2 80.0 79.0 75.3 68.4 59.4 50.6 44.2 41.5 41.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 12 15 17 21 26 31 31 28 18 10 7 6 9 19 24 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 10. 9. 7. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 5. -0. -5. -8. -11. -15. -17. -20. -21. -20. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -7. -9. -1. -1. -6. -6. -11. -15. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 2. 4. 1. 9. 8. 1. 1. -5. -7. -7. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 30.0 80.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912020 INVEST 05/27/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.43 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.36 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.76 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 13.1% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 2.6% 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 2.3% 0.8% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.3% 3.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912020 INVEST 05/27/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912020 INVEST 05/27/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 27 27 27 29 30 32 38 37 30 30 24 22 22 23 18HR AGO 25 24 26 24 24 24 26 27 29 35 34 27 27 21 19 19 20 12HR AGO 25 22 21 19 19 19 21 22 24 30 29 22 22 16 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 15 17 18 20 26 25 18 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT