* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARRY AL022019 07/13/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 59 57 56 50 46 41 42 42 41 41 40 V (KT) LAND 60 49 40 34 31 28 27 27 28 28 28 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 60 49 39 34 30 28 27 27 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 27 32 25 25 24 9 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 -1 0 3 2 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 337 327 323 302 283 296 273 324 346 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 30.3 30.7 30.8 30.5 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 170 170 170 170 159 159 156 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 145 153 154 147 131 129 128 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.5 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -51.7 -52.2 -51.8 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.8 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 8 7 8 4 8 3 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 58 55 61 60 57 58 58 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 21 21 20 17 14 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 0 -38 -42 -17 -87 -38 -66 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 68 19 9 63 35 21 3 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 4 7 0 3 4 6 6 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -18 -76 -129 -197 -267 -422 -567 -726 -914 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.8 30.4 30.9 31.6 32.2 33.6 34.9 36.5 38.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.2 92.5 92.8 93.0 93.1 93.3 93.3 92.9 92.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 5 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -5. -8. -14. -22. -24. -26. -28. -28. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -3. -4. -10. -14. -19. -18. -18. -19. -19. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 29.8 92.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022019 BARRY 07/13/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.15 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.17 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.53 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 284.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 14.1% 9.8% 7.8% 6.6% 8.7% 7.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.2% 3.5% 2.8% 2.3% 3.1% 2.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022019 BARRY 07/13/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022019 BARRY 07/13/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 49 40 34 31 28 27 27 28 28 28 28 28 18HR AGO 60 59 50 44 41 38 37 37 38 38 38 38 38 12HR AGO 60 57 56 50 47 44 43 43 44 44 44 44 44 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 47 44 43 43 44 44 44 44 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT