* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARRY AL022019 07/13/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 66 63 61 56 51 46 44 43 42 42 41 V (KT) LAND 65 56 46 38 33 29 27 27 27 28 28 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 65 59 48 39 34 29 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 20 28 31 27 24 16 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 0 -2 2 5 -1 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 360 336 324 321 302 280 291 284 355 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.5 30.1 30.6 30.8 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 158 170 170 170 161 159 158 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 132 142 151 155 133 128 128 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -50.7 -50.6 -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 10 12 8 7 9 2 8 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 56 58 56 59 60 58 60 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 25 21 22 20 17 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 3 -5 -42 -46 -55 -98 -75 -55 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 34 41 19 13 76 12 -5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -4 1 2 -1 2 5 12 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 44 -15 -72 -132 -193 -368 -511 -634 -802 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.3 29.8 30.3 30.9 31.5 33.1 34.4 35.6 37.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.9 92.1 92.4 92.6 92.9 93.0 93.1 92.9 92.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 8 6 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 18 5 6 6 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -7. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -9. -16. -22. -23. -24. -25. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 1. -2. -4. -9. -14. -19. -21. -22. -23. -23. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 29.3 91.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022019 BARRY 07/13/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.11 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.32 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.93 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.44 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 370.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.55 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 14.1% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 2.9% 1.3% 1.0% 0.5% 1.3% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 5.8% 3.7% 0.4% 0.2% 3.2% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022019 BARRY 07/13/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022019 BARRY 07/13/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 56 46 38 33 29 27 27 27 28 28 28 28 18HR AGO 65 64 54 46 41 37 35 35 35 36 36 36 36 12HR AGO 65 62 61 53 48 44 42 42 42 43 43 43 43 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 50 46 44 44 44 45 45 45 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT