* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARRY AL022019 07/13/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 58 57 51 49 45 42 39 38 38 37 V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 50 42 32 28 27 27 27 28 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 58 59 44 32 28 27 27 27 28 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 25 27 20 25 25 24 14 10 9 10 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 4 4 0 7 -3 6 0 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 358 350 359 335 325 310 281 283 275 350 334 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.7 30.1 30.3 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 158 162 170 170 161 159 157 158 158 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 132 132 136 142 145 132 129 128 128 128 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -50.8 -50.7 -51.4 -51.4 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 7 10 11 7 8 3 7 2 12 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 56 58 58 61 61 59 59 60 61 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 25 27 26 21 21 18 13 10 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -24 -23 -1 -8 -60 -59 -103 -111 -92 -53 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 1 -8 35 39 23 89 12 -5 6 5 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 5 0 -2 3 -3 2 4 3 26 38 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 67 47 38 0 -59 -193 -338 -474 -565 -710 -896 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.8 30.3 31.5 32.8 34.1 35.2 36.7 38.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.9 91.2 91.5 91.8 92.1 92.3 92.5 92.6 92.1 91.4 90.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 6 7 9 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 29 33 24 5 6 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. -3. -5. -9. -16. -22. -24. -25. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -16. -17. -17. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 28.5 90.9 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022019 BARRY 07/13/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.25 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.22 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.47 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 266.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 15.3% 10.3% 7.6% 6.7% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 4.8% 2.1% 1.0% 0.5% 1.6% 1.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 6.9% 4.2% 2.9% 2.4% 3.6% 0.5% 0.1% DTOPS: 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022019 BARRY 07/13/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022019 BARRY 07/13/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 56 50 42 32 28 27 27 27 28 28 28 18HR AGO 55 54 54 48 40 30 26 25 25 25 26 26 26 12HR AGO 55 52 51 45 37 27 23 22 22 22 23 23 23 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 37 27 23 22 22 22 23 23 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT