* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARRY AL022019 07/12/19 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 58 58 53 50 45 45 38 38 38 35 V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 50 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 61 54 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 28 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 24 26 22 32 25 25 11 15 8 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 3 4 2 2 3 2 0 3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 5 349 347 349 339 313 279 291 279 302 346 329 355 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.7 30.4 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.5 30.1 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 156 156 156 162 170 162 159 158 158 160 171 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 130 130 130 136 146 133 130 128 127 130 137 120 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 7 6 10 8 9 4 8 2 8 3 10 700-500 MB RH 57 56 53 56 58 56 59 54 56 57 63 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 24 26 27 23 22 19 17 11 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR 35 16 -17 -18 2 -42 -22 -110 -66 -114 -71 -115 -48 200 MB DIV 40 37 -7 -12 26 10 44 35 9 8 20 -17 -2 700-850 TADV -12 -3 5 0 -8 5 2 1 10 6 5 20 26 LAND (KM) 69 31 25 -2 -35 -182 -316 -435 -596 -710 -792 -922 -947 LAT (DEG N) 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.7 30.1 31.4 32.6 33.8 35.4 36.7 37.7 39.0 40.4 LONG(DEG W) 90.6 91.0 91.3 91.5 91.8 92.3 92.5 92.4 92.4 91.4 89.6 87.8 86.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 28 28 31 23 6 6 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. -2. -4. -8. -12. -21. -23. -26. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. -2. -5. -10. -10. -17. -17. -17. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 28.5 90.6 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022019 BARRY 07/12/19 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.29 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.16 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.87 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.44 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 16.0% 10.8% 7.9% 7.0% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 6.5% 4.1% 2.8% 2.4% 3.3% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022019 BARRY 07/12/19 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022019 BARRY 07/12/2019 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 58 50 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 18HR AGO 55 54 55 47 39 29 25 24 24 24 24 25 26 12HR AGO 55 52 51 43 35 25 21 20 20 20 20 21 22 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 37 27 23 22 22 22 22 23 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT