* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARRY AL022019 07/12/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 56 59 61 56 55 50 48 43 42 37 V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 56 59 47 34 29 27 27 27 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 52 55 57 47 34 29 27 27 27 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 22 17 15 20 18 30 25 28 13 10 7 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 0 4 5 2 0 5 4 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 6 10 12 349 343 325 310 293 295 288 311 344 331 SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.5 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 169 170 169 169 170 163 160 157 158 160 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 143 149 149 146 144 149 135 130 128 128 130 136 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 -52.2 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 10 7 10 7 9 5 9 5 10 4 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 57 54 57 56 56 48 48 47 55 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 21 22 24 25 20 20 18 17 13 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 40 37 34 19 -7 8 -32 -11 -95 -53 -92 -32 -73 200 MB DIV 43 24 39 39 -1 31 3 82 25 19 15 12 -25 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -9 -1 6 -1 -9 3 6 0 0 8 10 LAND (KM) 123 114 100 60 52 -44 -152 -316 -445 -552 -673 -790 -914 LAT (DEG N) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.7 29.1 30.1 31.1 32.6 33.9 35.1 36.4 37.7 38.9 LONG(DEG W) 90.0 90.3 90.7 91.1 91.6 92.2 92.4 92.5 92.4 92.0 91.1 89.5 87.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 5 6 6 5 7 7 6 7 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 37 36 35 33 36 7 6 4 4 4 4 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -9. -9. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. -1. -1. -5. -7. -13. -15. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 11. 10. 5. 3. -2. -3. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 28.0 90.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022019 BARRY 07/12/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.42 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.60 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.66 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 202.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 24.3% 15.8% 10.5% 10.2% 11.7% 14.5% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 8.1% 4.6% 1.2% 0.3% 2.0% 1.7% 0.4% Bayesian: 2.5% 2.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 11.6% 7.0% 3.9% 3.5% 4.6% 5.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 2.0% 20.0% 13.0% 6.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022019 BARRY 07/12/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022019 BARRY 07/12/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 52 56 59 47 34 29 27 27 27 27 28 18HR AGO 45 44 47 51 54 42 29 24 22 22 22 22 23 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 48 36 23 18 16 16 16 16 17 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT