* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARRY AL022019 07/12/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 47 50 51 52 52 48 46 43 39 36 34 V (KT) LAND 40 44 47 50 51 52 36 30 28 27 27 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 47 50 51 52 36 29 28 27 27 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 24 17 15 25 29 27 26 18 11 8 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 1 3 3 8 3 3 6 0 7 0 1 SHEAR DIR 17 3 9 3 348 344 321 299 292 301 276 13 351 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.4 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.5 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 168 169 169 164 161 160 160 157 157 160 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 141 144 148 137 134 132 131 128 127 129 138 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -51.9 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 9 10 7 9 5 9 3 9 2 12 700-500 MB RH 62 60 61 58 58 57 60 58 55 53 53 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 21 21 22 22 20 18 17 14 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 30 29 26 24 12 -20 -11 -57 -45 -104 -69 -65 -64 200 MB DIV 67 43 26 32 53 5 27 27 85 1 4 31 -2 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 -7 -1 -1 7 6 1 9 0 18 31 LAND (KM) 145 135 126 90 56 8 -97 -226 -326 -450 -594 -705 -800 LAT (DEG N) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.6 29.4 30.6 31.9 33.0 34.3 35.7 36.9 37.9 LONG(DEG W) 89.2 89.5 89.8 90.2 90.7 91.3 91.5 91.7 91.7 91.4 90.9 89.6 87.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 5 5 7 6 6 7 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 43 40 38 34 33 34 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. -1. -3. -6. -11. -15. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 8. 6. 3. -1. -4. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 27.8 89.2 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022019 BARRY 07/12/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 6.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.42 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.47 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.72 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.67 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 22.9% 15.3% 9.8% 9.4% 10.9% 13.8% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 7.4% 3.3% 0.6% 0.2% 2.0% 2.7% 1.0% Bayesian: 2.5% 3.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 11.3% 6.5% 3.6% 3.2% 4.4% 5.6% 0.3% DTOPS: 2.0% 11.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022019 BARRY 07/12/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022019 BARRY 07/12/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 47 50 51 52 36 30 28 27 27 27 28 18HR AGO 40 39 42 45 46 47 31 25 23 22 22 22 23 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 40 41 25 19 17 16 16 16 17 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 32 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT