* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022019 07/11/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 46 52 56 60 59 57 55 51 48 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 46 52 56 41 31 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 43 45 35 29 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 15 15 16 20 13 20 21 26 28 12 1 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -1 2 2 7 7 2 1 1 2 -3 SHEAR DIR 21 18 19 2 8 344 348 311 301 285 304 328 48 SST (C) 30.0 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.5 30.2 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 168 168 168 169 169 165 162 160 159 158 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 141 141 143 149 144 138 135 130 129 129 128 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.2 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.5 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 7 7 10 7 10 5 11 4 14 5 700-500 MB RH 63 65 63 59 59 55 54 54 52 49 46 46 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 16 18 18 19 22 22 24 22 21 20 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 7 32 41 47 47 19 -8 2 -34 -12 -44 -15 14 200 MB DIV 12 34 64 32 20 45 -1 41 52 39 9 -6 -2 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -2 0 0 0 1 -3 3 -6 0 1 11 LAND (KM) 174 155 144 134 111 67 43 -78 -244 -364 -466 -584 -734 LAT (DEG N) 27.7 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.5 29.2 30.5 32.0 33.2 34.2 35.5 37.0 LONG(DEG W) 88.5 88.9 89.3 89.7 90.1 90.9 91.6 91.8 91.9 92.1 92.2 91.6 90.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 7 7 6 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 45 44 42 38 36 33 37 5 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. -2. -6. -9. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 8. 6. 4. -3. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 22. 26. 30. 29. 27. 25. 22. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.7 88.5 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022019 TWO 07/11/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.47 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.27 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.69 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.74 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 20.2% 13.7% 8.6% 8.2% 10.3% 13.4% 17.7% Logistic: 4.9% 14.6% 7.7% 2.4% 0.8% 6.3% 6.9% 3.4% Bayesian: 1.0% 3.5% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 12.8% 7.4% 3.8% 3.0% 5.6% 6.8% 7.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022019 TWO 07/11/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022019 TWO 07/11/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 42 46 52 56 41 31 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 41 47 51 36 26 23 22 22 22 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 40 44 29 19 16 15 15 15 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 30 34 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT