* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022019 07/11/19 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 32 37 40 48 53 59 58 59 53 52 49 V (KT) LAND 25 27 32 37 40 48 53 59 40 31 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 34 36 37 30 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 18 16 18 16 21 18 28 21 21 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 2 1 0 -1 3 5 5 6 -2 3 5 -2 SHEAR DIR 8 14 17 11 357 6 335 326 307 285 296 284 316 SST (C) 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.5 30.9 31.2 30.9 30.0 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 169 169 169 169 169 169 168 162 161 161 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 143 146 146 149 157 162 157 141 134 132 131 130 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 10 10 7 9 8 10 7 8 5 9 5 700-500 MB RH 59 62 63 63 59 58 53 55 53 53 51 54 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 15 17 17 21 20 24 22 23 19 17 13 850 MB ENV VOR 5 9 17 34 35 34 -12 13 -31 -10 -79 -32 -36 200 MB DIV 16 10 32 58 27 33 12 22 30 67 9 13 17 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -4 0 -7 3 -1 3 7 -4 -1 4 LAND (KM) 210 198 195 178 169 123 89 35 -111 -256 -378 -507 -655 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.6 28.0 28.5 29.4 30.8 32.1 33.3 34.6 36.1 LONG(DEG W) 88.0 88.4 88.8 89.3 89.8 90.7 91.4 91.9 91.9 92.0 92.2 92.2 91.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 4 4 4 6 7 6 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 47 45 47 46 41 38 36 42 5 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 8. 16. 22. 27. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. -1. -6. -9. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 6. 7. 12. 10. 10. 5. 1. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 12. 15. 23. 28. 34. 33. 34. 28. 27. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 27.6 88.0 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022019 TWO 07/11/19 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.46 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.83 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 93.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 19.4% 13.3% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% 0.0% Logistic: 4.3% 14.0% 8.1% 3.9% 1.4% 6.4% 10.7% 5.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 2.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 11.9% 7.4% 4.2% 0.5% 2.2% 7.5% 1.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 8.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022019 TWO 07/11/19 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022019 TWO 07/11/2019 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 32 37 40 48 53 59 40 31 28 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 29 34 37 45 50 56 37 28 25 24 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 29 37 42 48 29 20 17 16 16 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 26 31 37 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT