* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022019 07/11/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 38 43 51 59 62 66 62 60 56 54 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 38 43 51 59 62 58 39 31 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 28 30 32 36 40 43 45 32 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 17 15 16 18 12 22 24 26 20 13 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 2 0 0 3 4 7 5 0 5 1 7 SHEAR DIR 34 356 5 12 359 356 326 328 304 296 279 312 283 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.4 30.9 31.1 31.2 31.0 30.5 30.0 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 170 169 169 169 169 170 168 169 170 170 168 161 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 144 146 145 150 160 159 161 159 150 139 132 130 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -52.0 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 8 10 10 7 10 7 10 6 9 3 11 700-500 MB RH 61 58 62 62 62 58 54 53 54 53 56 58 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 13 17 18 20 22 22 24 22 21 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 15 8 3 21 25 43 23 -16 0 -41 -54 -67 -24 200 MB DIV 56 12 7 34 58 26 45 3 33 20 81 -10 12 700-850 TADV 2 -1 -1 -3 -4 0 -1 3 -1 7 -7 4 5 LAND (KM) 198 179 174 172 182 150 123 78 -6 -156 -322 -478 -633 LAT (DEG N) 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.8 28.5 28.9 29.8 31.2 32.7 34.1 35.5 LONG(DEG W) 87.8 88.3 88.8 89.2 89.7 91.2 92.1 92.3 93.0 93.2 93.2 93.2 93.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 5 6 4 4 6 8 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 50 47 48 47 42 38 35 38 27 6 5 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 433 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 8. 16. 22. 27. 31. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. 1. -4. -7. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 3. 4. 5. 9. 9. 12. 9. 7. 1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 13. 18. 26. 34. 37. 41. 38. 35. 31. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 27.9 87.8 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022019 TWO 07/11/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.55 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.84 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 82.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 20.5% 14.0% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 9.6% 35.7% 25.0% 18.3% 8.7% 18.3% 19.9% 11.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 19.6% 13.2% 9.1% 2.9% 6.1% 11.1% 3.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022019 TWO 07/11/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022019 TWO 07/11/2019 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 38 43 51 59 62 58 39 31 28 27 18HR AGO 25 24 27 34 39 47 55 58 54 35 27 24 23 12HR AGO 25 22 21 28 33 41 49 52 48 29 21 18 17 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 28 36 39 35 16 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT