* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022019 07/10/19 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 39 47 53 60 59 64 58 57 54 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 39 47 53 60 59 55 37 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 34 38 41 43 45 45 32 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 13 18 21 22 24 19 30 32 28 14 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -3 0 -3 2 3 7 4 3 5 0 SHEAR DIR 350 11 19 358 12 3 355 333 332 315 307 272 333 SST (C) 30.1 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.1 30.3 30.6 31.1 31.2 30.5 29.9 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 169 168 169 169 169 169 169 170 166 160 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 149 146 141 142 147 152 160 161 151 138 130 128 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 8 8 9 8 10 7 9 5 9 2 700-500 MB RH 60 61 63 61 63 65 61 58 55 57 52 54 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 10 10 12 16 17 20 19 24 22 20 17 850 MB ENV VOR -9 9 15 3 -9 3 11 3 -27 -9 -62 -59 -104 200 MB DIV 4 44 53 24 12 51 23 53 4 56 -2 16 5 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -3 2 0 4 12 21 1 4 LAND (KM) 130 205 243 225 213 202 156 89 70 -5 -167 -286 -364 LAT (DEG N) 28.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 7 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 34 48 62 54 46 48 40 37 36 27 5 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 8. 16. 22. 27. 30. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 2. -3. -8. -14. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 11. 10. 16. 13. 10. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 22. 28. 35. 34. 39. 33. 32. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.7 86.1 ** 2019 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022019 TWO 07/10/19 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.32 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.74 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.82 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 89.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 20.8% 14.0% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 12.6% 0.0% Logistic: 8.6% 31.4% 18.7% 6.7% 3.2% 14.1% 17.7% 18.3% Bayesian: 0.9% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 5.3% 18.1% 11.1% 5.1% 1.1% 4.7% 10.2% 6.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 12.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022019 TWO 07/10/19 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022019 TWO 07/10/2019 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 35 39 47 53 60 59 55 37 30 28 18HR AGO 25 24 28 31 35 43 49 56 55 51 33 26 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 36 42 49 48 44 26 19 17 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 27 33 40 39 35 17 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT