* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/16/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 34 35 36 39 42 45 46 47 47 45 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 34 35 36 39 42 45 46 47 47 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 29 30 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 12 14 11 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -4 -6 -4 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 313 280 256 255 272 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.6 22.9 20.6 19.9 11.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 111 93 83 81 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 94 82 75 74 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.1 -56.1 -56.1 -56.1 -56.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 58 55 52 48 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 46 41 27 14 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 29 21 8 -6 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 0 7 3 3 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 612 572 559 473 403 178 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.3 39.1 39.9 41.2 42.4 45.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.1 62.0 60.8 59.4 58.0 55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 14 16 17 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 12. 15. 16. 17. 17. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 38.3 63.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/16/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 182.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.74 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.25 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.24 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 14.8% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 5.5% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/16/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/16/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 32 34 35 36 39 42 45 46 47 47 45 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 34 35 38 41 44 45 46 46 44 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 30 33 36 39 40 41 41 39 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 22 25 28 31 32 33 33 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT