* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/15/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 41 42 39 41 42 43 43 42 40 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 41 42 39 41 42 43 43 42 40 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 38 39 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 17 13 11 9 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -5 -4 -3 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 323 306 289 250 249 351 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 24.7 25.0 21.5 20.6 14.0 9.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 103 106 86 83 70 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 88 88 90 76 74 67 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.0 -55.9 -56.2 -56.3 -56.0 -55.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 57 58 55 51 47 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 46 51 35 25 -6 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 20 27 18 4 -2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -5 1 12 2 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 619 566 532 500 426 299 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.0 38.7 39.4 40.5 41.5 44.1 46.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 64.3 63.2 62.2 61.0 59.8 57.2 54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 11 12 14 15 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 628 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 38.0 64.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/15/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 197.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.72 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.23 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 70.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.29 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 15.1% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.6% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/15/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/15/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 40 41 42 39 41 42 43 43 42 40 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 39 40 37 39 40 41 41 40 38 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 35 32 34 35 36 36 35 33 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 27 24 26 27 28 28 27 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT