* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/15/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 37 38 37 37 36 35 34 33 31 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 37 38 37 37 36 35 34 33 31 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 36 36 35 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 29 25 17 11 18 16 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -8 -5 -3 -5 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 358 353 345 285 269 226 310 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 24.2 25.6 22.4 19.5 11.9 10.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 99 111 90 79 67 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 85 93 79 72 64 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.9 -56.2 -56.1 -55.9 -56.8 -56.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 0.6 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 57 60 60 59 49 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 12 12 11 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 42 42 45 33 -8 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -11 20 39 26 -3 -9 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -4 1 -8 2 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 586 509 417 343 299 187 113 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.0 39.0 39.9 41.0 42.1 44.2 46.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.5 64.8 64.1 63.1 62.0 59.3 56.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 14 14 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 12 CX,CY: 5/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 793 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 38.0 65.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/15/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.37 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.76 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.18 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.48 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 14.4% 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.2% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/15/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/15/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 38 37 38 37 37 36 35 34 33 31 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 35 36 35 35 34 33 32 31 29 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 31 32 31 31 30 29 28 27 25 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 25 24 24 23 22 21 20 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT