* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/14/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 35 35 35 34 31 29 26 23 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 35 35 35 34 31 29 26 23 20 DIS V (KT) LGEM 30 32 32 32 31 30 30 31 34 37 41 44 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 24 28 25 17 12 21 18 15 17 20 26 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -5 -7 -8 2 0 -3 -5 0 0 1 -8 SHEAR DIR 356 359 1 3 355 238 227 280 296 312 289 256 254 SST (C) 25.4 25.4 24.8 25.0 24.6 17.8 9.1 6.1 11.3 12.3 18.2 19.7 19.1 POT. INT. (KT) 108 109 104 107 104 77 68 67 70 71 80 83 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 92 93 90 92 90 73 67 66 68 69 76 77 73 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.8 -55.9 -56.2 -56.6 -56.2 -56.9 -57.7 -58.2 -57.9 -57.9 -55.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 51 55 60 62 58 53 51 54 54 52 45 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 15 13 11 9 9 6 4 4 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 25 26 26 34 26 -49 -63 -74 -82 -76 -63 -18 200 MB DIV -4 3 -3 20 43 7 -4 -33 -10 -31 -29 -34 -39 700-850 TADV 8 2 -2 -2 0 0 13 21 18 22 6 -15 -35 LAND (KM) 780 759 707 587 461 255 31 227 749 1307 1376 1067 805 LAT (DEG N) 35.5 36.2 37.2 38.4 39.8 43.0 46.6 49.5 50.9 50.2 46.9 42.8 39.7 LONG(DEG W) 66.2 65.2 64.3 63.7 63.0 60.3 55.8 50.2 43.2 35.1 27.6 22.2 18.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 13 14 16 23 24 24 24 28 30 25 18 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 9 CX,CY: 7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 4. 0. -3. -7. -11. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -16. -18. -21. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 35.5 66.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/14/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.20 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.71 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.77 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.33 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.37 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 12.5% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 2.1% 2.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.9% 4.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/14/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/14/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 35 35 35 34 31 29 26 23 20 DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 31 31 31 30 27 25 22 19 16 DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 26 25 22 20 17 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT