* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/14/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 31 31 32 31 29 25 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 31 31 32 31 30 27 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 23 22 22 24 30 33 35 37 37 Storm Type SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 32 32 27 28 27 8 18 14 12 16 20 26 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -5 -8 -2 1 0 -3 -3 -1 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 351 358 6 358 359 322 202 237 307 306 330 344 13 SST (C) 25.1 25.0 25.4 24.6 25.2 23.4 15.7 9.4 6.5 8.4 8.3 8.7 12.7 POT. INT. (KT) 105 104 108 103 108 96 73 67 66 66 65 65 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 89 92 88 92 85 70 66 65 65 64 64 65 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.5 -55.9 -56.0 -56.3 -56.4 -56.2 -56.9 -57.3 -57.4 -57.2 -57.4 -57.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 51 51 54 59 62 58 51 54 55 57 50 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 17 17 15 13 11 11 9 8 6 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 52 28 23 28 32 24 -31 -64 -70 -59 -50 -57 200 MB DIV -20 -5 8 -6 15 36 -9 -12 0 -5 1 -7 -43 700-850 TADV 8 12 3 0 -2 -9 1 2 19 16 13 15 14 LAND (KM) 763 746 739 713 622 415 233 7 145 542 902 1198 1444 LAT (DEG N) 35.1 35.6 36.1 36.9 38.0 40.5 43.6 47.1 50.0 52.2 53.3 53.1 51.7 LONG(DEG W) 67.5 66.8 65.8 64.9 64.1 62.5 59.3 55.7 51.8 47.3 42.2 37.4 33.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 12 13 17 21 20 19 17 15 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 8 CX,CY: 5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 7. 4. 0. -3. -7. -12. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -17. -21. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 4. 0. -6. -13. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 35.1 67.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/14/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.04 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.78 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.36 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.24 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 8.7% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/14/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/14/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 30 31 31 32 31 30 27 21 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 27 28 28 29 28 27 24 18 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 23 24 23 22 19 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 16 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT