* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/14/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 33 32 33 32 30 26 22 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 33 32 33 32 32 27 24 17 DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 22 22 23 28 31 34 36 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 31 32 28 28 18 12 17 12 12 20 25 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -4 -3 -5 -7 1 1 -2 -2 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 343 351 359 8 1 10 248 225 296 308 327 338 360 SST (C) 25.5 25.0 25.2 25.0 24.5 25.0 19.1 10.0 10.3 8.2 8.3 8.7 12.1 POT. INT. (KT) 109 104 106 105 102 107 80 68 68 67 67 67 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 92 89 90 90 87 91 74 66 66 66 66 66 67 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.8 -55.5 -55.8 -55.8 -56.3 -56.0 -56.9 -57.4 -57.8 -57.4 -57.6 -57.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 49 51 52 55 61 59 53 53 55 56 62 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 15 17 17 15 11 10 11 9 6 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 40 51 44 17 12 36 18 -28 -69 -67 -56 -56 -42 200 MB DIV -1 -21 -8 8 -2 31 7 -5 -12 14 -19 -9 -45 700-850 TADV 4 11 9 2 -2 -2 -4 2 16 1 16 25 38 LAND (KM) 725 755 742 716 677 461 266 139 25 425 878 1316 1323 LAT (DEG N) 34.7 35.3 35.8 36.5 37.4 39.6 42.7 46.1 49.1 51.5 53.3 53.6 52.2 LONG(DEG W) 68.0 67.3 66.4 65.5 64.8 63.6 61.0 57.3 53.3 48.6 42.6 35.8 29.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 14 21 21 20 20 21 20 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 9 CX,CY: 6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 6. 8. 9. 7. 3. -1. -4. -8. -13. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -14. -18. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 8. 7. 8. 7. 5. 1. -3. -10. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 34.7 68.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/14/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.04 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.78 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.36 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 94.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.06 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 7.5% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 2.6% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/14/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/14/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 33 32 33 32 32 27 24 17 DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 30 29 30 29 29 24 21 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 24 23 24 23 23 18 15 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT