* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/13/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 36 34 33 32 28 24 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 36 34 33 32 29 24 18 DIS V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 24 22 22 22 25 29 32 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 21 26 34 36 33 25 14 17 23 26 31 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 -1 -6 -5 -6 -2 0 -6 -3 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 338 344 346 6 6 4 357 282 234 276 316 345 345 SST (C) 26.2 26.3 26.2 25.9 25.8 24.8 24.7 20.4 8.2 7.6 10.6 13.0 19.5 POT. INT. (KT) 115 115 114 112 112 105 106 85 69 68 70 71 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 97 96 95 96 90 92 79 68 67 68 69 77 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.7 -55.4 -55.0 -55.4 -55.8 -56.5 -56.4 -57.0 -57.3 -57.7 -57.7 -57.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.8 -0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 48 49 52 53 56 62 64 60 56 54 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 13 15 13 10 10 10 9 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 42 44 44 53 33 9 17 1 -22 -59 -57 -52 -53 200 MB DIV 27 23 13 -11 2 -2 26 18 1 -33 -13 -20 -26 700-850 TADV 6 5 5 7 13 -2 1 5 5 34 33 21 8 LAND (KM) 632 674 728 788 832 747 546 338 22 394 961 1499 1490 LAT (DEG N) 33.2 33.7 33.9 34.3 34.9 36.7 39.1 42.6 46.6 49.8 50.9 49.2 45.2 LONG(DEG W) 69.6 68.9 68.2 67.4 66.4 64.6 62.6 59.0 54.1 47.9 40.1 32.5 27.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 9 10 13 18 25 27 26 25 26 26 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 9 CX,CY: 5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 781 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 5. -1. -6. -11. -16. -22. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 11. 9. 8. 7. 4. -1. -7. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 33.2 69.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/13/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.06 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.28 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.77 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.37 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 84.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.16 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 5.9% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.1% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/13/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/13/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 35 36 34 33 32 29 24 18 DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 33 34 32 31 30 27 22 16 DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 29 27 26 25 22 17 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 20 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT