* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/13/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 35 41 42 41 41 39 35 28 22 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 35 41 42 41 41 39 35 28 22 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 26 25 25 26 29 32 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 25 23 24 28 37 28 16 19 21 28 27 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 0 0 0 -4 -4 -4 0 0 -3 1 2 SHEAR DIR 304 326 336 345 348 356 350 329 242 225 264 291 305 SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.3 26.9 26.2 25.9 26.8 21.2 12.5 6.1 10.3 10.4 15.5 POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 128 123 115 114 124 87 71 67 69 69 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 110 108 104 98 98 107 79 68 67 68 68 71 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.1 -55.3 -55.5 -55.1 -55.2 -55.9 -56.7 -56.6 -56.8 -57.0 -57.5 -57.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.3 -0.9 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 50 48 46 47 50 55 60 62 59 54 54 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 10 10 13 13 11 11 11 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 9 31 43 45 35 18 -15 3 18 10 -29 -53 -60 200 MB DIV 39 24 27 29 13 0 -3 34 30 0 -24 -12 -33 700-850 TADV 6 7 0 6 0 13 -3 4 6 -4 8 3 6 LAND (KM) 641 659 705 770 826 796 625 449 224 173 692 1255 1318 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 32.5 33.1 33.7 34.2 35.8 38.2 41.2 44.8 48.2 50.6 51.0 49.3 LONG(DEG W) 70.6 69.7 68.8 67.8 67.0 65.2 63.0 60.1 55.7 50.6 43.9 35.9 28.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 9 9 13 17 21 24 25 25 25 26 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 5 1 1 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 13 CX,CY: 7/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 799 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 5. -1. -6. -11. -17. -22. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. -1. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 10. 16. 17. 16. 16. 14. 10. 3. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 31.7 70.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/13/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.22 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 170.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.75 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.43 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.26 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 89.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.10 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 8.5% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/13/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/13/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 33 35 41 42 41 41 39 35 28 22 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 32 38 39 38 38 36 32 25 19 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 27 33 34 33 33 31 27 20 DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 24 23 23 21 17 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT